Troy Gibbs-Brown: Forecasting Before it’s Possible

Maroon-pigmented lion's mane jellyfish (cyanea capillata) floating near the surface, captured above water

The past few weeks of my independent research have been mostly literature-intensive, reading papers and reports regarding the spatiotemporal distribution of lion’s mane jellyfish (LMJ). These reports have taken me all across the Atlantic Ocean in my attempt to predict and estimate the migration patterns of the largest jellyfish species known to humankind. I have been sorting and prioritizing the tasks required to conduct my field research, which will entail water quality testing and potential jellyfish capture. I spent the last week or so communicating with the Hudson River Park (HRPK) Trust, whose separate monitoring of coastal oyster ecosystems will be incorporated into my study later on down the line. I have also established the locations of which I want to test the water quality, specifically looking at the Yonkers ocean monitoring system, the HRPK site in the Battery of Manhattan, and a location on Governor’s Island, a ferry ride south of Manhattan.

Mapped locations of water quality testing sites to be carried out in this study. Three locations: Hudson River Park Trust (off of W 10th St), Center for the Urban River at Beczak (Yonkers, NY), & Governor’s Island, NY.

The literature review that I have been conducting has shed some light as to the preferential conditions of C. capillata, which tend to be colder and more saline waters. I have also discovered some sense of pattern in the migration of this species, moving from the southern North Sea to the Irish Sea, and then across the Atlantic (how they travel to the west Atlantic are unknown to me). I am looking forward to getting into the field and conducting water quality tests in the next week, which will establish a baseline of reference to understand where the summer water conditions were situated just a month before. It has been through constant communication with my advisors and mentors that I have begun to hone in on the specific areas of focus of this project: First, are the current water conditions of the Hudson River suitable for a LMJ arrival this summer, comparable to the conditions in 2008? Secondly, are Massachusetts/Rhode Island waters the southern limit for the C. capillata distribution area? Studies around the distribution of jellyfish, and specifically C. capillata, are mostly focused on the eastern Atlantic, looking at oceans off the coast of the United Kingdom and Greenland, but little studies on their presence in the east have surfaced in my search, motivating me even further to conduct this study and understand the shifts in migration patterns as a result of anthropogenic climate change.

Monitoring Station:
The Battery (NOS)
07/20/08
(1st arrival event)
07/24/18
(Second sighting)*
06/09/1506/09/1606/09/1806/09/21
Salinity (psu) | 12pm, Max, Min25.5, 26.5, 23.524, 25.5, 18.521, 23.7, 18.220, 24.5, 1723, 24, 1723.5, 25, 17.5
SST (ºC) | 12pm, Max, Min23.6, 25.3, 23.324.2, 24.4, 24.218.1, 18.3, 16.120, 20, 18.117.8, 20, 17.218.9, 20, 17.5
Monitoring Station: Bay Ridge
Salinity (psu)NA20, 21, 2023, 25.5, 2222, 22, 11.518, 18, 1621.5, 24.5, 20.5
SST (ºC)NA24.4, 24.4, 23.318.3, 19.2, 17.818.6, 19.2, 17.818.3, 20.8, 18.319.2, 20.3, 17.2 (modeled)
Water Quality Comparison: This chart identifies and records the water quality parameters of salinity and sea surface temperature at two ocean monitoring locations (The Battery & Bay Ridge). These measurements indicate the parameters on designated dates, the main plots of focus being July 20th, 2008 and July 24th, 2018 (the two arrival events of LMJ in Hudson River waters). These measurements will be used to compare the current water conditions and for reference for future tests taken in the months of July and August.

*LMJ sighting was reported in Yonkers, NY, but the monitoring stations are far south of the sighting location